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This year’s Final Four actually contains four surprises. UConn was the top seed in the tournament, but March Madness hasn’t seen a repeat champion since 2007. The last five national champions had all flamed out in the first or second round. N.C. State was slotted into the NIT before they started what is now a nine-game winning streak that took them to the ACC Tournament title (and got them an automatic bid) and, now, all the way to the Final Four. Purdue entered as a 1-seed, but they have developed a reputation for flaming out early. Alabama is inits first Final Four and has the top offense in the nation. Let’s take a look at some NCAAB betting insights about the two semifinal games set for Saturday: UConn-Alabama and N.C.State-Purdue.
2024 March Madness Final Four ATS Picks
N.C. State Wolfpack (+9.5) vs Purdue Boilermakers (O/U 145.5) (6:09 pm ET)
The last time an 11-seed made it to the Final Four, the year was 1979, when Indiana State went all the way to the finals before losing to Michigan State in a duel between Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. The last time the Wolfpack was in the Final Four was 1983, when they pulled off the massive upset of Houston to win their title. The Wolfpack stopped Duke, 76-64, in the South Region final on Sunday, as D.J. Burns wrote another chapter in his tournament legend, dropping a season-high 29 on the Blue Devils and picking up a Most Outstanding Player plaque for the South Region. D.J. Horne chipped in 20 points, and Michael O’Connell set a career mark with 11 rebounds and a season high with six assists. N.C. State shot 73% from the floor in the second half and turned a six-point halftime deficit into that 18-point win. Their defense held Duke to just 32% shooting from the floor for the game.
Purdue hasn’t been in a Final Four since 1980 but have won a school-record 33 contests, including a big win over 2-seed Tennessee in the Midwest Regional final. The Boilermakers have won their four tournament games by a combined 88 points, and Zach Edey seems to have his name engraved on the National Player of the Year trophy already, as he dropped a career-best 40 points on Tennessee while grabbing 16 boards, getting the Midwest’s Most Outstanding Player trophy. He is averaging 30 points and almost 17 boards per game in March Madness.
March Madness Pick: N.C. State to cover
Alabama Crimson Tide (+11.5) vs UConn Huskies (O/U 161.5) (8:49 pm ET)
Alabama dropped four of six coming into March Madness, but they have won four straight now. They have played the toughest schedule this season, according to KenPom. They’ve beaten Oregon, South Carolina, Mississippi State (twice), Auburn, Texas A&M, and Florida. Their top scorer is Mark Sears (21.5 points per game). He shoots 50.4% overall, including 43.4% from behind the arc. Senior guard Aaron Estrada (13.4 points, 5.3 rebounds per game), forward Grant Nelson (11.7 points, 5.6 rebounds per game) and guard Ryan Griffen (11.3 points per game) are the other double-digit contributors. KenPom has the Tide ranked third in offensive efficiency and ninth in tempo – but just 105th in defensive efficiency. No team scores more than the 90.8 that the Tide put up per game. Will this be enough?
The Huskies ride in on an 11-game winning streak and have won 25 of their last 26. They have also covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games, and the smallest margin of victory they’ve provided in this edition of March Madness has been 17 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 26th according to KenPom; they have beaten Texas, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Creighton, and Marquette – three times. Guard Tristen Newton is the top scorer with 15.9 points per game, and he also dishes out 6.1 assists per contest. Center Donovan Clingan (12.9 points, 7.5 boards, 2.5 blocks per game) is a force in the paint, and forward Alex Karaban (13.5 points, 4.9 rebounds per game) and guard Cam Spencer (14.4 points, 3.7 assists per game) are the other double-digit scorers. They lead the nation in offensive efficiency according to KenPom and rank fourth in defensive efficiency, and they rank 15th in field goal percentage and 10th in opponent field goal percentage permitted.
March Madness Pick: Alabama to cover
Odds to Win March Madness
- UCon Huskies -190
- Purdue Boilermakers +200
- Alabama Crimson Tide +1600
- NC State Wolfpack +1800
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